Corona Virus: Part 3

The date for easing restrictions here in North Carolina is coming into focus.  I am predicting May 15th.  I am assuming that over the next two weeks the we continue to see declines in the number of new cases, number of hospitalizations, and number of infected.  

We need additional data on the number of hospitalizations,  capacity of health care system and data on test kits.  How many test kits will be needed vs. availability.  Very little data on these as of today.

There is growing pressure to ease restrictions earlier.  If that happens we plan to maintain our stay-at-home until May 15th regardless.

I have goals for our isolation time:

- finish Shelby Foote's The Civil War.  Just started the fourth volume.
- finish the Great Course on Modern Political Theory
- finish the Spong lecture
- catch up on back issues of the Economist
- catch up on back issues of Foreign Affairs
- complete all spring yard work; all leaves mulched, all limbs collected and burned
- maintain weight at 160 or less

Corona Virus: Part 2

I am now getting a sense of the framework for the conditions that must be satisficed to end the stay-at-home orders.

Three assumptions:
a) No effective treatment is discovered
b) Stay-at-home orders will be ended either at the state or local level - not national.
c) Even after stay-at-home orders are ended there still will be restrictions and limitations.

1)  The health system must be able to handle new cases with normal resources, i.e. a non-emergency basis.  For example, the health system must be able to handle non-emergency surgeries, normal cases loads, etc. without the need of staff working overtime.

2) The state or locality must have the resources for "test and trace".  Anyone who is symptomatic must have access to a test.  The state or locality must have a system in place to identify and notify those who have a high probability of being in contact with anyone who has tested positive.