I am now getting a sense of the framework for the conditions that must be satisficed to end the stay-at-home orders.
Three assumptions:
a) No effective treatment is discovered
b) Stay-at-home orders will be ended either at the state or local level - not national.
c) Even after stay-at-home orders are ended there still will be restrictions and limitations.
1) The health system must be able to handle new cases with normal resources, i.e. a non-emergency basis. For example, the health system must be able to handle non-emergency surgeries, normal cases loads, etc. without the need of staff working overtime.
2) The state or locality must have the resources for "test and trace". Anyone who is symptomatic must have access to a test. The state or locality must have a system in place to identify and notify those who have a high probability of being in contact with anyone who has tested positive.
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