Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

 Written Jul 22:

A short time back I was very optimistic about Biden’s administration policies and the outlook for the next election.   His focus on vaccinations was working.  His 3-way policy of America Rescue Plan, Jobs Plan (infrastructure) and Family Plan (anti-poverty and social safety net improvements) made sense.

 

The first part American Rescue Plan was done through reconciliation which was the right move.  The final bill had only a few concessions to the more moderate Dem Senators.   Biden said it might be “too big” but that was a risk he was willing to take as opposed to it being too small.  Not it looks like it was a too big and we have some “transisent” inflation but by and large this was a progressive, pragmatic and popular bill.

 

Next up was the American Jobs Plan which Biden negotiated as a bipartisan bill.   This was also a good idea.  It may be a little smaller than some wanted but it looked progressive, pragmatic and popular.

 

The next step would be to take bows for an improving job market, a strong stock market, reduction in child poverty from the American Rescue Plan’s child tax credits.   Then take another bow for negotiating a bi-partisan infrastructure bill which eluded Obama and Trump.  Then take another bow for having a sane foreign policy and trade policy.

 

The American Family Plan should have been on the back burner with the idea that the Senate would use reconciliation to pass a Dem bill in 2022.  The Dem caucus would be informed that this bill would be passed and would include some of the non-physical infrastructure elements that the Jobs Plan left out.  But the Dem leaders should have kept a low profile on this and given vague answers.   Eventually  the bill would strike a balance of Sanders and Manchin which no matter how it turned out would be a victory for Biden in 2022.  No one who wants to win in 2022 wants Sanders to write this bill.

 

Then the unforced error.  Publicly tying the bipartisan American Jobs Plan with the upcoming partisan American Family Plan.

 

So now we have uncertainty over the Jobs plan.  The Rescue plan is being critized for temporarily high inflation and some dislocations in the job market.   The Family Plan is being critized for the large increase in spending and in the deficit even before the size of the bill has been determined.   We know that it is hypocritical for the GOP to complain about deficits but we also know that the general public has a short memory.    

 

Bottom line -  The Dems gave the GOP some actual policy talking points.   Unforced error.