Corona Virus: May 19

I just finished updating my stats.  I now think that the "new cases" data is not a reliable source of information.  I have started switching my graphs to 14 day moving averages of deaths.   Things overall haven't changed.  States are reopening businesses and there have not been widespread spikes in deaths.  Curve is on the slight decline but there is no reason to expect the pandemic to be over anytime soon.

I expect NC Gov Cooper to go to Phase 2 on May 22 in accordance with his preliminary schedule.  I also think it will be fine.  I don't think reopening will have much of an impact.  Those at risk will continue to stay home and be cautious.

Let's see how many downtown restaurants we lose.  I suspect French Broad Café and the new breakfast place will not reopen.  Maybe Renzo's.  The over-under is 3.

As far as the end there are some early positive indicators for both a vaccine and a treatment.  I think the treatment is more important than the vaccine.  First, it is more targeted.  You only need to apply it to folks who test positive and are getting sick enough to ask for health care.  Second, I think it may be approved sooner.

Phases of New Normal
- Return to Planet Fitness
- All parks and trails open
- Indoor social gatherings
- Go to a restaurant
- Play bridge
- Pandemic moves off the front page of the NY Times


As far as my day to day status, I have:
- Finished the yard project
- On volume 8, that is about half way, on Shelby Foote's Civil War
- 2/3 done on the Modern Political Traditions
- Episode 8 of The Last Dance
- Finished season 2 of This is Us
- Making less progress on Sherlock Holmds
- Still way behind on back issues of the Economist and Foreign Affairs